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Friday, July 16, 2010
MCPS Enrollment Forecast - Off by 5,525
In 2002, MCPS forecast that by 2008 there would be 144,801 students attending MCPS. That was the number that Superintendent Weast used to lobby for an increase in the MCPS Operating Budget.
Was that forecast correct?
Here is the history of MCPS enrollment since 2001:
2001 - 136,832
2002 - 138,832
2003 - 138,891
2004 - 139,203
2005 - 139,337
2006 - 137,798
2007 - 137,745
2008 - 139,276
And in 2009? Still not there. 2009's enrollment was 141,777.
UPDATE: Now take a look at the MCPS budget during the same time period. It shows a steady increase, even in the years when the enrollment dropped.
To put this amount of forecasting error in perspective, 5,525 students is approximately the number of students in an average MCPS cluster. (A cluster is a high school, the middle schools that feed into that high school, and all of the elementary schools that feed into those middle schools.)
Not to defend MCPS but this is beyond ridiculous. It was a forecast not a guarantee. Better that they overstated enrollment than understated it. Then you would all be complaining about how MCPS received fewer resources because they came up short. Bottom-line is that MCPS makes a lot mistakes but you diminish your credibility on the things that really matter when you go after this stuff.
@anonymous: Sounds like you don't attend County Council Education Committee meetings. If you did you would hear how these "forecasts" are used to advocate for spending increases - and how failure to "fully fund" the MCPS budget based on these "forecasts" will result in increased class size and teacher cuts.
Here's the game: MCPS predicts huge increases in students. Puts a dollar figure on those increase. If the MCPS budget isn't funded at the requested level, teachers are cut. But if the students that were predicted didn't show up why would there need to be teacher cuts?
The Council has been funding the MCPS budget based on these "forecasts" for years. So if the students didn't materialized but the funding did, why are we seeing teacher cuts this year?
while enrollment dropped and then came back to just below 2005 level.
That was enough funding at the 2005 per student spending rate to teach an extra
32,522 students.
But those 32,522 students didn't show up and the MCPS Operating Budget has continued to increase while class sizes at middle school are the largest in the DC area.
To put this amount of forecasting error in perspective, 5,525 students is approximately the number of students in an average MCPS cluster. (A cluster is a high school, the middle schools that feed into that high school, and all of the elementary schools that feed into those middle schools.)
ReplyDeleteNot to defend MCPS but this is beyond ridiculous. It was a forecast not a guarantee. Better that they overstated enrollment than understated it. Then you would all be complaining about how MCPS received fewer resources because they came up short. Bottom-line is that MCPS makes a lot mistakes but you diminish your credibility on the things that really matter when you go after this stuff.
ReplyDelete@anonymous: Sounds like you don't attend County Council Education Committee meetings. If you did you would hear how these "forecasts" are used to advocate for spending increases - and how failure to "fully fund" the MCPS budget based on these "forecasts" will result in increased class size and teacher cuts.
ReplyDeleteHere's the game: MCPS predicts huge increases in students. Puts a dollar figure on those increase. If the MCPS budget isn't funded at the requested level, teachers are cut. But if the students that were predicted didn't show up why would there need to be teacher cuts?
The Council has been funding the MCPS budget based on these "forecasts" for years. So if the students didn't materialized but the funding did, why are we seeing teacher cuts this year?
@ anonymous: In response to your comment the blog post has been updated to include the MCPS Operating Budget for the same time period.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the FY 2011 budget at http://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/budget/FY2011/pdf/BudgetAdopted2011.pdf
ReplyDeletethe actual student enrollment for FY2010 was 141,777 compared to the budgeted amount 140,500
Between 2005 and 2008 the MCPS budget increased
ReplyDelete$375,635,086
while enrollment dropped and then came back to just below 2005 level.
That was enough funding at the 2005 per student spending rate to teach an extra
32,522 students.
But those 32,522 students didn't show up and the MCPS Operating Budget has continued to increase while class sizes at middle school are the largest in the DC area.