The Images shared with the MCPS Board of Education are WRONG.

Executive Summary

Recent presentations to the Montgomery County Board of Education utilized a specific data visualization to argue that housing growth has “decoupled” from student enrollment. This chart has been cited as a primary justification for consequential infrastructure decisions, including the proposed closure of Wootton High School. As a data science professional with nearly two decades of experience in time series analysis, I have audited this visualization and found it to be methodologically invalid. The presentation relies on mismatched axes, hidden baselines, and a known statistical anomaly to manufacture a divergence that does not exist in the raw data.

The Images shared with the BOE (WRONG)...

 https://parentscoalitionmd.substack.com/p/the-images-shared-with-the-mcps-board

City of Rockville to Board of Ed: MCPS Failed to Include Major Planning Documents

2026 City of Rockville Letter to BOE by Parents' Coalition of Montgomery County, Maryland

Montgomery County schools see ‘sharp decrease’ in student enrollment

...He said the school system is anticipating a loss of 6,000 students over the next six years. That would bring the enrollment figures down to 149,706 from a high of 165,267 in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the declining enrollment projections, Taylor said, “It doesn’t change the size of our portfolio,” referring to the total 238 school buildings in the school system...

https://wtop.com/montgomery-county/2025/10/montgomery-county-schools-see-student-enrollment-drop-project-its-part-of-trend/

After years of silence, Maryland education leaders do homework, find funding flaws

Baltimore (WBFF) — Maryland education leaders say they are now open to changing how the state funds public schools. This comes after Project Baltimore exposed how millions of your dollars are going to schools to educate students who are not there.

Project Baltimore, since 2021, has been investigating potential problems with how Maryland funds public schools. But for four years, state education leaders have been unwilling to address the concerns we’ve uncovered.

Now, one recent Fox45 News report appears to have had an impact. Last month, Project Baltimore exposed how Maryland schools got an estimated $168 million last year to educate students who were not in class.

“As you've dug into this about enrollment data, I've learned a lot in your reporting and our team really diving into this for us,” said Dr. Joshua Michael, President of the Maryland State Board of Education. “From looking at it now, there could be a better way of representing the students that are actually in our schools.”..

 https://foxbaltimore.com/news/project-baltimore/maryland-education-schools-underfunded-dr-joshua-michael

Maryland taxpayers paid $219 million in 2024 to educate students who could not be found

Baltimore (WBFF) — A Project Baltimore investigation has uncovered that Maryland taxpayers, in 2024, gave public schools hundreds of millions of dollars to educate students whose whereabouts were unknown.

It’s late September. And Maryland public schools are busy – not just educating students but counting them.

In Maryland, most of a school’s funding is based on the number of students enrolled on one day, September 30th. The students counted on that day largely determine a school’s funding the following year.

But a Project Baltimore investigation is raising serious questions about that process. We’ve learned, in 2024, taxpayers gave hundreds of millions of dollars to schools to educate students who could not be found...

https://foxbaltimore.com/news/project-baltimore/taxpayers-students-whereabouts-unknown-maryland-education

MSDE: Summary of Attendance by County - MCPS Number of Students "Whereabouts Unknown" = 1,888

See page 13 of this Maryland State Department of Education Report for the 2023-2024 school year. 

https://marylandpublicschools.org/about/Documents/DCAA/SSP/20232024Student/2024-Attendance-Summary-Student-Publication-A.pdf

MCPS Enrollment Declines

 Project Baltimore:  

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=338914509105213&set=a.121038330892833

Why Does the State’s School Enrollment Count Matter?

How Maryland counts full time students enrolled in the state’s public schools has long factored into how the state funds public education, namely at a per pupil required funding minimum.

The Blueprint for Maryland’s Future — Maryland’s major education policy reform initiative — altered the school enrollment count and subsequent funding processes, namely how we determine the state/local split in public education funding. Here, we provide an overview of that process, how it impacts funding, and what is to come.

Current law on enrollment and per pupil funding 

Maryland conducts an annual enrollment or “head count” of all students enrolled at a full time equivalent (FTE) in the state’s public schools on the same day every year — Sept 30. That head count is important not only to inform statewide education policies and data, but also for counties as a major funder of our public schools.

The enrollment count plays a crucial role in school funding formulas in Maryland and is ultimately one factor in determining how much funding local school districts will get in the state’s budget via “per pupil” spending. This happens through the Foundation Program Formula — the main program in general education aid and accounts for about half of state-funded aid.

Also known as the “Foundation Formula,” it ensures a base level of funding per pupil via the basic formula:

per pupil foundation amount X local enrollment

The Foundation Formula is designed to have the state pay about 50 percent of public education program costs, with some adjustments depending on local wealth. Maryland uses two factors to determine each county’s “wealth” – a blended value of the county’s property assessments, and the total net taxable income for county residents. The intended result is pretty common sense funding values:

• Wealthier jurisdictions receive less in state school funding, less wealthy counties receive more.
• That said, there are guardrails in place in law to ensure that regardless of local wealth, no jurisdiction will receive less than 15 percent of state share for total educational program costs.

In a nutshell: up until The Blueprint, state aid to education was based on two factors: full time enrollment and local wealth — and that was true for a very long time...

Why Does the State's School Enrollment Count Matter? – Conduit Street (mdcounties.org)

NYC Education Dept. school enrollment declines by 17,000

New York Daily News |

Oct 29, 2021 at 2:06 PM

Enrollment at New York City public schools has dropped by 17,000 this year, Department of Education data released Friday shows.

The student register across the DOE’s 1,600 schools fell from roughly 955,000 last year to 938,000 this year, according to preliminary data shared Friday by the agency. Another 142,000 kids are enrolled in publicly-funded but privately-run charter schools, bringing the total combined enrollment of public and charter schools to roughly 1.08 million.

Citing the continued effects of the pandemic on enrollment, officials also announced Friday that they won’t cut schools budget based on the number of students.

Schools are allocated money in the spring based on projected enrollment for the upcoming school year, and usually have to give some of that cash back if their rolls are lower than expected. That policy was suspended last year, and will do so again now by using federal stimulus funds to cover any losses.

Enrollment in large urban districts across the country cratered last year and have continued to fall, with Los Angeles public schools losing nearly 6 % of their students this year and Chicago’s public school enrollment dropped by 3%.

New York City’s enrollment losses would have been steeper without a big expansion of the city’s free preschool program for three-year-olds, which led to an additional 20,000 students.

 https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/education/ny-enrollment-2021-decline-pandemic-20211029-i6ojeuwcsfblzpjuicejiluyj4-story.html

School board says building projects still a priority as enrollment tails off

 https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-beat/schools/school-board-says-building-projects-still-a-priority-as-enrollment-tails-off/

Montgomery Co. Public Schools' enrollment declines by 3,700 students amid virtual learning

 https://wjla.com/news/local/montgomery-co-public-schools-enrollment-declines-by-3700-students-amid-virtual-learning

MCPS Enrollment as of September 30, 2019

Enrollment: 165,267 Students
(As of September 30, 2019)

MCPS buses transport 103,000 students to and from home and school daily


62,267 students are not provided bus transportation and walk to school. 

That's almost 40% of MCPS students do not take a school bus to attend public school.  

Maryland Public School Systems One Year Change in Enrollment

As Student Enrollment Slows MCPS Officials Take Another Look At The Budget

Updated at  2:48 p.m. on May 24th

For the second year in a row, Montgomery County Public school officials over projected the number of new students that would be enrolling in the district. This could mean less funding in the future, says Superintendent Jack Smith.

The Montgomery County Council Thursday finalized their $5.8 billion budget, despite the projected drop in students, the council was able to find funding for the school system through a combination of state and local contributions. While the formula fixes the problem, for now, it means less money in future fiscal years. The state is changing its funding formula starting in the fiscal year 2020, which could also mean less money allocated to county schools in coming years.

“This year we built a budget based on expecting about 1,200 new students next September,” Smith said. “We’re actually thinking at this point in the year we’re getting 700 or 800.”

For the past 10 years, county schools increased by about 2,000 new students every year. There were a total of 159,010 students enrolled in 2017 and 161,546 in 2018. While that enrollment is more, year over year, it was less than MCPS expected to have.

“We certainly don’t want to go to where we have a loss of student population,” Smith said...

https://wamu.org/story/19/05/23/second-year-of-student-growth-decline-for-mcps-could-spell-trouble-for-funding/

This is how @MCPS 6-yr enrollment forecasts performed recently: all ~200 schools.

This is how @MCPS 6-yr enrollment forecasts performed recently: all ~200 schools. Do they even know?  Why do we have to figure it out ourselves? pic.twitter.com/P0ebvEZeYF

— Brian Krantz (@briankinmd) December 12, 2018

Montgomery schools’ executive director for operations, said its enrollment projections are about 99 percent accurate at a county level.

...Essie McGuire, Montgomery schools’ executive director for operations, said its enrollment projections are about 99 percent accurate at a county level. But she said the countywide calculations have masked changes in individual neighborhoods. Statistically speaking, she said, it’s also more difficult to predict the future at a more detailed school level.

The school system recently hired a consulting group to help update its enrollment forecasting models and respond more quickly to rapid changes, particularly in high-growth areas...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/as-school-systems-grapple-with-overcrowding-parents-wonder-why-enrollment-projections-are-so-off/2018/09/09/7f8abda4-95cd-11e8-810c-5fa705927d54_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.84dd12cebecd

COUNTY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IS “FLATTENING”

The superintendent of schools said the rate of student enrollment increase in Montgomery County Public Schools seems to be “flattening,” based on enrollment counts this year.

MCPS Superintendent of Schools Jack Smith said at the Jan. 25 County Board of Education budget work session that staff predicts enrollment will increase by 1800 or 1900 students for the 2018-2019 school year, a drop from the projection included in the proposed budget in December. 

Staff predicted a 2,472- student increase from the current fiscal year’s budget (161,302 students) for a total number of 163,774 students enrolled at the beginning of the 2018-2019 school year, according to Smith’s proposed budget...

http://www.thesentinel.com/mont/news/local/item/6368-county-school-enrollment-is-flattening

Blair's portables address student overflow but present new problems. Addition will put Blair at 3,600 Students.

At the far end of Blair, past the SAC doors and the student courtyard, sit four brand new portables, a mass of beige and wood lazing in the afternoon sun. The portables, a result of Blair's expanding student population, are a new addition meant to help with the increasing Blazer population. 

The new Blair building, which first opened for the 1998-1999 school year, was meant to hold only 2820 students, but currently holds about 3100 students and 307 staff members. According to Blair principal Renay Johnson, Blair's student population will continue to increase each year. "I've been told that every year we get 200 more students until we get up to 3600 students, and then it may stabilize a little bit," she says. 

After Blair reached its capacity last year, MCPS assigned four new portables to Blair that would help alleviate the classroom shortage. "We got brand new portables; sometimes the county refurbishes them from different schools, but these were brand new, constructed on site and they put decking in the front," Johnson explains. 

The recent increase in high school students is a result of an influx of students from elementary and middle schools nine years ago. Student enrollment has gone from 2900 students to 3100 students, and is expected to reach 3300 students by the 2018-19 school year. To help with the second wave of new students, Blair will receive four more portables next year. 

In order to address the growing number of enrolled students, Blair has met with architects and has plans to be renovated and receive additions sometime in the near future. "We had a meeting last April with architects, and they showed us some plans of what it would look like to expand Blair so it would be 3600 students without portable classrooms...

...The time it takes for students to get to the portables has definitely been an adjustment for teachers such as math teacher John Giles who teaches in portable four during periods one, three, seven, eight and nine. He finds that a lot of his students show up late to ninth period because the shortened passing period leaves little time for students to get all the way out to the parking lot on time, sometimes from the complete opposite end of the school. "It's a hike to get here so unless they're like lined up at the door ready to bolt the second the bell rings it is kind of hard for them to get here in five minutes, so they are kind of routinely late," Giles says...

...Agbonselobho Yakubu, the building services manager, described the portables as an increase in the work that is already asked of the building services staff. "It's an extension of what we are doing already, we take on the new workload, that's what it is," Yakubu explains...

https://silverchips.mbhs.edu/story/13612

BOE Solar Panel Plan - 1st Meeting - Laytonsville Middle School Site

First meeting on the Board of Education and Interim Superintendent Larry Bowers' plan to turn 3 future school sites in to solar power plants.

Video Part 1:


Video Part 2:

County Committee Orders Two Studies for MCPS Alternative Education Program

Opponents of a Montgomery County Public Schools’ plan to move the county’s Alternative Education Program from the Blair G. Ewing Center to the English Manor School property off Bestor Drive won a small victory Thursday afternoon.

 The Montgomery County Council’s Education Committee approved a plan Thursday that has the county’s school system looking at both the Blair site and English Manor building for the program that currently includes 138 students. The council committee agreed to allow the school system to spend $1.5 million for two feasibility studies- one that looks at renovating to Ewing site off Avery Road and another that allows the school system to check out if the English Manor property or another school system-owned site would work for the programming...

 http://www.mymcmedia.org/county-committee-orders-two-studies-for-mcps-alternative-education-program-photos/